I'm Back

Hey, I haven't blogged much recently. In fact I haven't blogged in the last three months. I've been kind of busy, but I hope to begin blogging on a regular basis again. The primaries are all but over in both parties. McCain has had it all wrapped up since Super Tuesday. Huckabee hasn't conceded defeat yet, but it's only a matter of time. Obama's probably going to win the Democratic side. His lead isn't that large, but he has all of the momentum. Hillary needs to win Ohio or Texas just to stay in it, and both if she wants to pull even with him. I'm torn over who I'm rooting for in this little scrap. Clinton is the worst candidate in the field. If there was anyone that I'd be rooting against it would be her. However, part of me wants Hillary to win the nomination because she would be easier for McCain to beat in November. Obama, with his eloquence and cult-like following, looks like an unstoppable freight train right now. On that note let us turn to the general election. Despite my feeling on the matter, the election will be close in either direction. Based on recent polls, McCain is running slightly ahead of Hillary, and slightly behind Obama. However, he's only 4 points behind, and the Wilder Effect usually makes a 3-5 point difference. (In case you don't know what the Wilder Effect is, it is a hypothesis used to explain the statistical anomolies between polling data and actual vote totals. Many people say that they will vote for a black candidate because they don't want to sound racist, but then change their mind when they go into the voting booth. This effect gives a 3-5 point edge to a minority candidate in polls, that may not be there on election day.) I don't think that this election will be as close as 2000, but perhaps like the 2004 election. One candidate will probably win by a percentage point or two.